Pound 1.47?

Pound targeting 1.47, neckline at 1.54. If neckline breaks, pound goes to 1.47.

-Shrihas Pandharkar

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DYOR.

Shorting Opportunity again?

This is quick update on my 17th Janaury post, in which I said, I expect Major top on18th January. I have covered my shorts (though bit early)

Markets did react as per my prediction but I am revising my predictions.

S&P should be shorted at 1293 now with a stop loss 1302. If stopped out, then S&P should be shorted twice the quantity of ealrier short at 1308 with a stop loss at 1318. If that position gets stopped out, then there is something wrong in my calculation.

If either of these shorts is succesful, one may get 100 points on S&P but will update about that gain later.

-Shrihas Pandharkar

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DYOR.

Ambitious?

Probably S&P and DOW will put Major top on Tuesday 18th January 2011. Ambitious statement, isn’t it?

I am not married to this thought. However, I am opening short position tomorrow.

Chinese President is busy promoting Yuan but he says it is a gradual process. If S&P breaks 1296 then I may cover shorts, only to re-enter at 1308.

UK GDP expected on 24th and US GDP on 28th.

Mr. Greenspan is expecting 3.4% GDP growth. I expect Friday 28th to be down day. If we have down day before 28th, then Friday 28th will not be down day.

-Shrihas Pandharkar

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DYOR.

EURO 1.56

Unconfirmed reports suggest Germany and France have agreed to increase size of bailout fund. If this news is confirmed then EURO may find support at 1.2684 and then rally to 1.56.

If EURO bailout fund is increased then I may have to revisit market fall prediction that I made in my earlier posts.

-Shrihas Pandharkar

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DYOR.

Short Signal

Only thing that is stopping me from issuing short signal today on FTSE, S&P and DOW is my earlier post; http://shrihas1.blogspot.com/2010/11/history-repeats-itself.html

Chinese President is coming on 19th January and to prepare for his visit, Chinese Finance minister has arrived in the USA. Headlines are saying that he intends to meet Hilary Clinton (who is not in anyway connected to finance). Does that sound strange? I think it does.

I checked Chinese President's new year message and there is nothing that suggests Yuan revaluation. If Chinese president visit draws blank, please do not wait for any updates from me but prepare to SHORT..

PS: I just see update by Singapore PM saying "Yuan revaluation is WIN-WIN situation for US/China". Note that most of the businesses in Singapore/Malaysia are run by Chinese. I will keep updated on this in later posts.

-Shrihas Pandharkar

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DYOR.

Ominous Baltic Index?

Ominous Baltic Index?

I also see H&S pattern with HEAD at 4900 and shoulders at 4200. It was not lead indicator in 2008 (this can be argued) but I see correction in Markets in first/second week of January followed by small uptick and then decent downturn in February/March in all Major indices like; S&P, DOW and FTSE.

Note also that 4900 is exactly 38.2% retracement of its fall from 11800 to 663. Another bad news?

-Shrihas Pandharkar
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DYOR.

Expect the unexpected

One fine morning, Connaught (CNT.L), stock fell from 110 to 18 (to close at 38) on the news of financial distress. One fund manager came in print and said “A year before I stopped a van of Connaught and asked the driver what he is doing for the day? Driver pointed his figure to bunch of papers and (driver) said that I (driver) don’t understand anything out of this. Hearing this, I (fund manager who was speaking) shorted the stock (CNT.L)”.

Turning to latest development, unconfirmed reports suggest that Paulson fund has pared holding in BofA. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Singapore based commodity investor has shorted BofA. When WikiLeaks said that it is going to publish documents on “not so good practices” in one of the bank, BofA tanked 4%.

Above two paragraphs, show that reason for fall (or rise) in stock prices are very different from what appears in print. It just needs a trigger. That is why current whisper (or whisper numbers) is what makes the difference.

-Shrihas Pandharkar

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DYOR.